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After two years of crashing banking systems and economic recession, the euro zone enters 2010 with a full-blown debt crisis.
The European Commission warns that public finances in half of the 16 euro-zone nations are at high risk of becoming unsustainable.
Governments will spend the next year and beyond balancing the urgent need to fix public-sector debt and deficits -- without imperiling what appears to be a feeble economic recovery.
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Even the staunchest optimists in Brussels and Frankfurt see a rocky process, with rating firms poised for more downgrades and bond markets meting out daily judgment over how governments are doing.
Greece and Spain saw their ratings downgraded. Ireland and Portugal have been warned they could be next. Even broader downgrades threaten if other European governments don't shape up.
Fitch warns in a December report that particularly the U.K. (which isn't in the euro zone) and Spain and France (which are) risk being downgraded if they don't articulate more-credible fiscal-consolidation programs during the coming year given the pace of fiscal deterioration.
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With the young currency bloc facing the first major test of its fiscal reliability, financial markets are hedging their bets.
The euro ended 2009 slipping off its highs for the year and bank stocks were sliding on perceptions that their government-bond holdings could lose value. Economists worry the fiscal damage could take years to repair. The recession that has gripped the euro zone since mid-2008 collapsed tax revenues and sent welfare costs soaring.
Billions of euros dedicated to fiscal-stimulus plans and bank bailouts completed the devastation to government finances.
Investors also worry about the danger of a 'double dip' European recession if governments get the timing and pace of budget consolidation wrong and choke off the recovery.
That prospect comes alongside concerns of more ratings downgrades and higher default risk if governments act too slowly.
Budget deficits for the region as whole in 2009 swelled to 6.4% of gross domestic product from 2% the year before. The EU forecast sees that gap widening to nearly 7% in 2010 before the worst is over.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet says he worries that runaway government borrowing could undermine his ability to hold down inflation, and wasted no opportunity to cajole governments back into line. But ECB officials also acknowledge that countries such as Greece and Spain may need to move earlier in reducing deficits and the amount of debt flooding European bond markets.
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